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ECB leaves policy unchanged despite darkening economic outlook

The European Central Bank has left its monetary policy unchanged and decided not to inject more stimulus into the eurozone economy, despite a fresh surge in coronavirus infections triggering growing restrictions on activity in some of the bloc’s largest economies.

The ECB kept its deposit rate at minus 0.5 per cent and held its emergency bond-buying plan at €1.35tn in its latest policy announcement on Thursday.

The bank said risks were “clearly tilted to the downside” and promised to carry out a “thorough reassessment of the economic outlook and the balance of risks” and to “recalibrate its instruments, as appropriate, to respond to the unfolding situation” at its next meeting in December.

The decision was anticipated by most economists. ECB president Christine Lagarde will discuss the economic outlook at a press conference later on Thursday.

The ECB’s decision comes a day before new figures are expected to show that the eurozone sank into its third consecutive month of deflation in October.

The gloomy pricing data on Friday will be accompanied by gross domestic product figures that are expected to reveal record growth of close to 10 per cent between the second and third quarters — bouncing back from a deep recession in the first half of this year.

But the outlook for the eurozone economy has darkened in recent days as countries including France and Germany reported record daily coronavirus infections and announced new restrictions on people’s social interaction and movements — including curfews and closures of bars, restaurants, leisure facilities and non-essential shops.

The partial lockdowns are not as strict as those imposed when the pandemic first hit Europe in March, with schools and factories being left open. But economists expect them to drag the economy into a fresh contraction -— curtailing the rebound in output which occurred in the third quarter.

“The possibility of a double-dip recession cannot be ruled out yet, as the new restrictions being implemented across the euro area to curb the current resurgence of Covid-19 cases will again increase uncertainty for households, corporates and banks,” Kerstin af Jochnick, an ECB supervisory board member, said in a speech earlier on Thursday.

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